Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, November 19th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory as the recent momentum continues. The major stock indexes are mixed with the Dow down 42 points and the Nasdaq up 2 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32 (1.79%), but weakness late yesterday is going to prevent us from seeing much of an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates.



30 yr - 1.79%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock



Bond Trends

The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield is testing a relatively important level of 1.78%. If it breaks below that level and holds, there is a very good possibility of seeing another downward trend that brings lower rates. There may be a test of this level, meaning there could be some resistance. But breaking below would allow us to remain very optimistic about seeing mortgage rates move lower in the near future.



Housing Starts (New Residential Construction)

Today’s sole economic data was October's Housing Starts at 8:30 AM ET. It showed an increase in new home groundbreakings that fell short of expectations. However, a secondary reading that tracks newly issued building permits and indicates future groundbreakings came in well above forecasts. Accordingly, we are considering the data mixed or neutral for bonds and mortgage pricing.



Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

Tomorrow has no relevant economic data scheduled but does have the minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting. Traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed's next move regarding monetary policy from discussion of the participating members. The minutes will show what economic concerns members have that influenced their vote for a quarter point rate cut at this meeting. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, therefore, any reaction will come during mid-afternoon trading. These minutes may lead to afternoon volatility tomorrow, or they may be a non-factor. Because they do carry the potential to influence mortgage rates, they should be watched.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.